The numbers below are my own projections and not represent the City of Sasktoon or any other Councillor’s position. They’re based on how the federal programs that would fund DEED work, which matters because the Province’s offer depends entirely on what Ottawa agrees to fund.
The official estimate for the Downtown Event and Entertainment District is still $1.22 billion, in 2024 dollars. Council has asked for an updated figure, and some media reporting already puts it near $1.6 billion, but even at the lower number, here’s what the City’s share potentially looks like.
We know City Hall’s plan presumes a three-way split, so roughly $400M each from Ottawa, the Province, and the remainder from the City. The Province has already agreed and informed Ottawa that they would match federal dollars up to a third of eligible costs.
So what are eligible costs? Federal infrastructure programs have long refused to fund facilities that house professional or semi-professional teams. For Saskatoon, this includes the Blades and the Rush. The arena accounts for $632M of the $1.22B, so if Ottawa sets it aside and funds a third of everything else (the convention centre, theatre, infrastructure, parkade and land), its share comes to about $200M. The Province would then match that, bringing the total to roughly $400M.
That leaves Saskatoon with about $800M to cover, which is twice what the funding plan was built to address.
The City is also negotiating a possible partnership with Muskeg Lake Cree Nation. These discussions are still very preliminary, but that could mean an operating role in the new venues, urban reserve status for the land, and access to federal funding streams the City can’t tap on its own.
To be clear, I’m only considering a hypothetical scenario, so let’s say a partnership offer covers about half of the City’s $800M, which still leaves roughly $400M for Saskatoon to find.
That sounds like we’re back to the original plan, but it isn’t. Since Council turned down OVG360, the plan has the new combined board for SaskTel Centre and TCU Place operating the district, with the arena’s operating revenue helping pay down construction. A partner putting in hundreds of millions would reasonably expect a share of that revenue in return. So the City’s remaining $400M might have to be paid with less money coming back in to cover it.
And what about the ticket surcharge, hotel levy and TIF in the current plan were designed for a $400M share under the original assumptions? It should be noted that the hotel levy requires the Province to amend The Cities Act, and that hasn’t happened. As well, the TIF and its returns are back-loaded, so we won’t see the full impact until years down the road.
As we consider this, what happens if the cost moves toward $1.6B as reported in the media? The same math leaves the City’s portion around $540M with a partner covering half its share. Without a partner, the City’s portion is just over $1B.
Again, we are waiting for several reports to come back to Council regarding updated costs, projections, SaskTel Centre upgrade costs, etc., and I want to be clear that none of this is a case for or against a partnership. To my understanding, we are still far from any deal coming to Council, and any agreement would also need to go through Muskeg Lake Cree Nation’s own approval process. I’m looking forward to the discussions at Council if and when a deal is proposed.
Right now, what we don’t know far exceeds what we do know. With so much work going into showing we can afford this, it feels a bit like a teenager saving for a first car: a few more lawns mowed, a few more shifts at my part-time job, and it’ll be mine. Before anyone signs for the car, we need to know the real sticker price, and whether we can pay it without breaking Council’s commitment of no property tax increases.
